Today marks five years since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. In this research spotlight, we look back at half a decade of COVID-19 research at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science.
Five years ago, researchers at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science (LCDS) rallied together to provide scientific evidence on the demographic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Launched in 2019, LCDS quickly became a frontrunner of COVID-19 research from the early days of the pandemic. The Centre published three reports on the effectiveness of face coverings, the behavioral aspects of vaccine uptake and misinformation, and behavioural criteria for vaccine passports which were instrumental in shaping government policy. A week after LCDS released its report on face coverings, the UK government made wearing them compulsory to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Professor Melinda Mills, lead author of the reports and Director of LCDS and Oxford Population Health’s Demographic Science Unit, said ‘We were able to show government and policymakers around the world that demography, rigorous scientific evidence, and an interdisciplinary approach matters to solving COVID-19 problems such as the importance of wearing face coverings.’
In 2021, LCDS researchers received the O2RB Excellence in Impact Awards for their data-driven policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The team's contribution to policy intervention was driven by insights garnered from analysing large datasets and multidisciplinary expertise within the team, resulting in insights that benefited policy decisions.
COVID-19 research included evaluating the effectiveness of social bubbles, developing a dashboard to forecast COVID-19 related hospitalisation, and showing the importance of demographic science and population composition on COVID mortality. Other research included quantifying life expectancy losses and changes, quantifying learning loss due to school closures, and evaluating the impact of COVID-19 certificates.
Over the past five years, LCDS researchers have published more than 80 academic papers on a range of COVID-19 topics. These include studies on life expectancy changes since COVID-19, how racial inequalities in the US were exacerbated by the pandemic, lessons learned in studying fertility and family dynamics in the pandemics aftermath, and COVID-19’s impact on other causes of death.
A recent study co-authored by Dr Charles Rahal, Associate Professor in Data Science and Informatics at LCDS and the Demographic Science Unit, found that corporate elites in London benefited the most from the economic crisis caused by COVID-19, rather than young, first-time entrepreneurs.
Professor Melinda Mills concludes, ‘As we mark five years since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, LCDS continues to reflect on the lessons learned and how they can inform current and future demographic challenges. We hope our COVID-19 research has laid a strong foundation for future pandemic responses, enabling quicker reactions and better preparedness.’
Five years on, LCDS continues to research the demographic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. Professor Melinda Mills recently attended the Vatican and contributed to a statement on the achievements and challenges of health policies, vaccination and long COVID-19. The Centre is also co-leading the Oxford Martin Programme on Digital Pandemic Preparedness to protect against future pandemics using digital tools. Alongside the Pandemic Sciences Institute and other research groups at Oxford University, LCDS will develop a blueprint for digital health systems that can be deployed during pandemics, create a funding model for implementation, and work with public health agencies to develop the next generation of pandemic-ready digital tools.
