An international study involving the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science shows that life expectancy in Mexico declined between 2015 and 2021, before beginning to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022. The study is the first of its kind to uncover the effects of violent deaths, particularly high homicide rates, and other causes of death on life expectancy before, during, and after the pandemic.
Published in the International Journal of Epidemiology, the study uses death certificate data from 2000-2022 to determine how causes of death have led to life expectancy changes across Mexico. The study identified violence as a leading cause of life expectancy loss before the pandemic.
The study found that violence among young men was the biggest contributor to male life expectancy declining from 71.8 to 71.1 years between 2015 and 2019. Violence among males aged 20–39 years accounted for 54.3% of life-expectancy losses. During the same period, life expectancy for females stagnated with a slight increase from 77.5 to 77.6 years.
Mexico experienced sizable excess mortality during the pandemic. Between 2019 and 2020, male life expectancy had decreased by over seven years to 64.1 and over four years for females to 73.1 years. COVID-19 accounted for 55.4% of that change for males and 57.7% for females. The paper notes that pre-existent health risk factors among the population – such as diabetes, obesity and high prevalence of cardiovascular disease and comorbidities – may have been one of the reasons why Mexico was so heavily affected, alongside the high levels of homicides in the region.
Lead author Daniel Zazueta, PhD researcher at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute and forthcoming Postdoctoral Researcher at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, said ‘In Mexico there is the need for a comprehensive public health response that includes prevention of violence, improved access to healthcare, and better management of chronic diseases. Globally, our study emphasises the importance of addressing the social determinants of health, such as regional and socioeconomic inequality, increased violence, and access to healthcare, in the face of public health emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic.’
During the first two years of the pandemic, between 2020 and 2021, male life expectancy remained around 64 years, while female life expectancy declined slightly to 72.7 years in 2021. This difference may be due to varying exposure levels to COVID-19. Men were more likely to work outside the home, increasing their vulnerability earlier in the pandemic (before vaccination programmes), while women were more likely to be unemployed or able to work remotely during the pandemic. Additionally, with 65% of Mexico’s healthcare workforce being female, women may have faced higher occupational exposure to COVID-19, further contributing to their life expectancy losses in 2021.
The study also found stark regional inequalities in life expectancy losses. States in the southern and central regions of Mexico experienced the largest losses, highlighting the challenges posed by increased violence and socio-economic disparities in these areas. The paper highlights the role of increased homicides as a key factor of life expectancy losses before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
By 2022, life expectancy was beginning to return to pre-pandemic rates across the country. However, unequal recovery patterns can be seen across regions, most likely driven by sociodemographic characteristics and health inequalities across states. The pandemic placed enormous strain on the healthcare system, particularly in poorer regions of the country, where healthcare infrastructure was often inadequate to manage the influx of patients.
The study also provides key insights into shifting life expectancy trends, offering vital lessons for addressing similar challenges in other parts of Latin America and the world.
Senior author Dr José Manuel Aburto, demographer at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said ‘The implications of this study are not limited to Mexico alone. While Mexico’s challenges are particularly stark, the findings have relevance for other countries in Latin America and beyond. The combination of violence and pandemics is a growing concern globally, with similar patterns being observed in countries with high homicide rates and fragile healthcare systems.’
The full paper, ‘The impact of violence and COVID-19 on Mexico’s life expectancy losses and recent bounce-back, 2015–2022’ can be found in the International Journal of Epidemiology.
